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Predictions 2009 by Searchblog

by Sachin Balagopalan on January 4, 2009 · 1 comment

John Battelle just posted his yearly predictions for 2009… I have been following his year end postings for the past couple of years and he’s usually on the money mostly, if not pretty close. He’s changed the format slightly so he can measure his predictions easier at the end of the year and determine how he did. As usual he has some pretty interesting points …

8. Apple will see a significant reversal of recent fortunes. I sense this will happen for a number of reasons (yeah yeah), but I think the main one will be brand related - a brand based on being cooler than the other guy simply does not scale past a certain point. I sense Apple has hit that point.

A very interesting observation about brand scaling. How long can Apple continue to sustain it’s “cool” image which ultimately leads to their fortunes? The obvious answer is to continue to “wow” us in terms of new - and cool - products. I agree with Battelle, they are probably on the diminishing end of the bell curve with the iPhone and iPod Touch - we have passed the “ah ha!” moment IMO. They might just be able to squeeze in one more if they can do something with the rumored tablet/netbook by leveraging technology behind the iPod Touch.

… and this one also make you go hmmm! …

12. Facebook will do something entirely shocking and unpredictable. I am not certain what, but it won’t have a “status quo” year. It might be a merger with a traditional media company, a major alliance with Google, hiring a head scratcher as CEO, or something else at that level of “WTF!?” As I think about it, it might be as simple as making Facebook Connect truly open, and changing its policies to make it drop dead easy to get data out of the service. Also, Facebook will build a Twitter competitor, but it will never leave beta and will ultimately be abandoned as not worth the time. Instead, Facebook will “friend” Twitter and the two companies will become strong partners.

I’m not sure about this one … Definitely opening up Facebook Connect will be huge because who wouldn’t want access to their vast user base and the associated data. IMO this won’t be easy because of the never ending privacy related issues and I don’t think FB wants a repeat of Beacon! As far as Twitter … Twitter MUST do something in 2009 about monetizing their content and user base (as John points out in prediction #11). Unless FB can help them with this I don’t think there will be any sort of “partnership”.

and finally this one definitely perked my interest ….

13. Lucky #13 is reserved for my eternal mobile prediction: 2009 will see the year mobility becomes presumptive in every aspect of the web. By that I mean what I wrote back in 2007: “Mobile will finally be plugged into the web in a way that makes sense for the average user and a major mobile innovation - the kind that makes us all say - Jeez that was obvious - will occur. At the core of this innovation will be the concept of search”

Pieces of it are already there. Watch out for Google to make a huge splash with this one! :)


{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

prefabrik 08.08.09 at 12:57 am

1. Macro economy: Take everything you've learned about the current crisis in the home building sector; close your eyes and Imagine the same storm in the commercial sector. We follow this closely and we're hearing the noise right now! The people that own commercial properties have all the same problems! What a shame all the Liars on Wall Street aren't talking about it more.
2. The online media space: Spot on, many businesses are off 50% and more. But at the end of the day the Internet takes all!
3. Google: Right now Google is the Internet as far as many people are concerned. It's their's to lose. When we're doing SEO we don't even think about Yahoo or MSN. Vertical integration could save them. Twitter like so many others needs a business model. I think business will advertise on facebook,twitter, etc, but won't sell anything. There all going mobile and thats not good for sales.
8. Apple: will last as long as steve jobs does. I will pray for him.
9. Major brands: I think Google is the Major Brand right now, and thats kind of scary! Anyone with a great website, and some SEO can act and look just like a Major Brand! The first product or business in the consumers mind wins. It's true, Proctor and Gamble have proved this for years. What does that mean now? Maybe the top of the organic listing on Google! Hmmm, Who controls the organic list?
12. Facebook: these companies are all data miners as far as I'm concerned. We talk with Home Improvement contractors constantly, and the ones that do bother to connect with these, soon forget about them. I set up an account on Linkedin, and it was horrible, the worst bunch of self serving spam crap every morning on my email, I shut it down!

When was the last time anyone reading this blog, clicked on an ad on any of these social media sites, and purchased anything? That's the problem at the end of the day, they have lots of kids blabing to their friends and thats about it!
14. Lastly, I promise: Finish your book Dammit, and consider an ad or two in the book, and on the Audio versions, I swear no one would mind! Just keep it short like Hulu.

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